Seasonal rebound in mechanical sales,industry valuation safety margin gradually emerging
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2024-10-20
Fixed assets investment has stabilized, and the recovery of growth rate still needs to wait. From January to August, the cumulative investment in fixed assets was 18.06 trillion yuan, up 25.0% year on year, and the cumulative completed amount of new fixed assets investment was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 35.0% year on year, which is not much different from the previous period. Real estate investment in major downstream industries remains relatively stable, while the growth rate of railway investment has significantly declined. Due to the continued high CPI, it is unlikely that policies will be relaxed in the short term, and railway investment will need to wait until the investigation into high-speed rail accidents is completed before restarting. On the whole, the recovery of growth rate of fixed assets investment still needs to wait.
The sales volume of the construction machinery industry has rebounded seasonally compared to the previous period. In August, entering the peak season for construction machinery sales, the year-on-year decline in sales of excavators, cranes, and bulldozers has narrowed, while the year-on-year increase in sales of loaders has expanded; Each sub industry has shown varying degrees of growth compared to the previous period; The export market has rebounded. September is the traditional peak sales season for the second half of the year, and it is expected that the sales of construction machinery will rebound in the next 1-2 months compared to the previous month. However, due to the high base since September last year, the year-on-year decline may continue.
The safety margin of industry valuation is gradually emerging. At present, the overall static PE of the construction machinery sector is 12.64X, and the overall PB is 2.56X, with a valuation level close to the level during the 2008 financial crisis. The urbanization process in our country is still advancing, and with the continuous improvement of product quality, there is still room for growth in import substitution and exports. Investors will gradually become accustomed to the industry returning to stable growth from high-speed growth in previous years. After significant adjustments in the early stages, the industry valuation gradually reflects pessimistic expectations. After the stock price continues to adjust, construction machinery will have a certain safety margin.
Key words： assets,investment
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